Gold prices are circling their highest levels in over a month—hovering near $3,390/oz—as a softer US dollar and easing Treasury yields revive investor appetite for the yellow metal. Despite cooling trade tensions between Washington and Brussels, risk sentiment remains fragile, supporting bullion’s safe-haven appeal.
Technically, XAUUSD is locked in a narrow $3,300–$3,400 consolidation zone. Daily indicators suggest strong support around $3,350–$3,360, while upside momentum hinges on a clean break above the $3,400–$3,420 resistance band. A decisive move through that level could open the path toward fresh record highs beyond $3,500, with $3,700–$4,000 eyed by bulls into 2026.
Forecasts remain split: Citi sees potential downside below $3,000 in a base-case pullback scenario, while Goldman Sachs and HSBC argue the metal’s structural bullish case—driven by policy uncertainty, geopolitical fragility, and de-dollarization—is far from over.
For traders, key levels to watch:
- Upside: A daily close above $3,420 clears the runway toward $3,500+.
- Downside: A break below $3,350 may invite a $3,300–$3,245 test.
1. Safe-haven drivers & USD/yield dynamics
Gold recently surged to around $3,390/oz, its highest level since mid‑June, buoyed by a weaker US dollar and falling Treasury yields. Although trade tensions eased with a pending US–EU tariff deal, risk sentiment remains fragile, supporting bullion demand.
2. Technical & trading structure
Gold is consolidating within a $3,300–$3,400 band. Support sits near $3,350–$3,360 (daily oscillators RSI/MACD), while resistance lies around $3,400–$3,420. A breakout above this range would open the door to testing record highs near $3,500+.
3. Fundamental stance & forecasts
While Citi projects a potential drop below $3,000 in a base case, HSBC and Goldman Sachs reinforce structural upside, forecasting year-end targets around $3,200–$3,700, with possible extension to $4,000/oz by mid‑2026 amid escalating global risk.
Summary:
XAUUSD remains range-bound near $3,350–$3,390, supported by macro risk appetite and policy uncertainty. A solid break above $3,400–$3,420 could accelerate gains toward $3,500+, while a slip below $3,350 risks a fall toward $3,300–$3,245.
XAUUSD – H4 Timeframe
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On this XAUUSD 4-hour chart:
Price broke out of a bullish flag pattern (descending channel) with strong bullish momentum.
A bullish impulse followed, and we are now in a retracement phase, respecting the ascending trendline that has guided price action since late June.
Price hovers near a confluence zone where the trendline, a previous resistance-turned-support structure, and a demand zone (highlighted box) align.
A bullish demand zone lies between 3315 and 3340, a critical confluence of structure, breakout retest, and trendline support.
My Trading Plan:
I’ll wait for price to dip into that boxed demand zone (near 3315–3340).
If bullish price action forms there (e.g., engulfing candle, pin bar, or bullish rejection), I’ll go long, targeting a retest of the recent high (around 3435–3440).
If price breaks below the trendline and closes below 3300, I’ll stay out and reassess the bullish scenario.
This setup assumes that the broader bullish trend remains intact and that the structure, demand, and trendline support confluence leads to a high-probability reversal.
CONCLUSION
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