US100: Markets Look to End a Wild Week on a Positive Note

Fundamental Factors Impacting Markets

1. Tariff Chaos Dominates Headlines
   • U.S. Tariff Changes:
     • Universal import rate cut to 10% (except for China)
     • China hit with 145% tariffs – confirmed by White House
   • China's Retaliation:
     • Boosted tariffs on U.S. goods from 84% → 125%
     • Chinese finance ministry warned tariffs are becoming an economic "joke."
   • Other Tariffs Still in Effect:
     • 25% tariffs on aluminum, autos from Canada & Mexico (outside USMCA)
     • 145% on China
     • 10% on all other countries
2. Uncertainty Remains Despite Diplomatic Moves
   • EU's trade rep flying to Washington Sunday to potentially "sign deals"
   • There is no clarity on whether the 90-day tariff reprieve will stick or expire with more chaos
   • Analysts and fund managers warn temporary tariff pauses are not a resolution
3. Economic Fallout
   • Investors fear long-term inflation + slower growth
   • Businesses and consumers lack confidence with short-term reprieves
   • Jed Ellerbroek (Argent Capital): "Policies = higher inflation, lower growth, frustrated market."
4. Market Sentiment Swings
   • Traders switching rapidly between risk-on (Wednesday rally) and risk-off (Thursday plunge)
   • Significant indices remain 7.1% down since the April 2nd tariff announcement
   • High volatility likely to persist as policy headlines drive intraday momentum

Key Takeaway for Traders

• Markets are trying to stabilize after one of the most volatile weeks in years, but headline risk from tariffs is not priced in the long term.
• Relief rally may continue Friday if EU-U.S. trade news is positive, but the risk remains heavily skewed to the downside if talks stall or China retaliates further.

US100 – H4 Timeframe

The bullish break of structure on the 4-hour timeframe chart of US100 created a Fair Value Gap and was followed by a bearish retracement. In such scenarios, price is expected to be attracted to the FVG area, after which a reaction from the demand zone would serve as the entry confirmation. In this case, the highlighted demand zone overlaps the trendline support and serves as a critical area of confirmation.

US100 – H1 Timeframe

The 1-hour timeframe chart reveals the SBR pattern lurking behind the drop-base-rally demand zone. We also discover that the demand zone falls within the 76%- 88% Fibonacci retracement levels, another confirmation of bullish intent. Finally, trendline support is the final piece that brings the puzzle together.

Analyst's Expectations: 

Direction: Bullish

Target- 19443.88

Invalidation- 1647.80

CONCLUSION

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