U.S. crude futures trade in a narrow $66–68 band as the market weighs classic summer tightness against rising global supply and swelling domestic inventories. The IEA reports brisk seasonal refining demand and pronounced backwardation in physical barrels, offsetting OPEC+’s decision to hike output by 548,000 barrels per day starting in August.
Yet headwinds persist. Early July saw the largest U.S. crude inventory build since January, hinting at softer domestic consumption just as the EIA forecasts a modest dip in production to around 13.37 million barrels per day in the second half of 2025. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and potential new U.S. sanctions on Russian crude lend support, though fresh U.S. tariffs risk dampening broader global demand.
Analysts remain cautious. JPMorgan sees a possible slide toward $58–60 by year-end if supply keeps outpacing consumption, while the EIA projects Q3 prices averaging near $64.70 before easing to $60 in Q4. Technically, WTI finds support near $64–65, with resistance at $68.80–69.20; a breakout could open a push toward $72. Traders now look to weekly U.S. stock data and OPEC+ guidance for the market’s next catalyst.
XTIUSD H3 Timeframe
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The 3-hour timeframe chart of XTIUSD shows price returning to a drop-base-rally area of demand after having completed a ‘double break of structure’ pattern. The demand zone overlaps the trendline support and was formed by a move that had previously swept liquidity, thus providing crucial evidence in favor of the bullish sentiment.
Direction: Bullish
Target- 69.06
Invalidation- 63.69
CONCLUSION
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