Fundamental Analysis
Crude oil prices are facing bearish pressure due to the anticipated OPEC+ decision to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, adding to previous hikes in April, May, and June. Saudi Arabia is expected to cut its official selling prices for Asia to six-month lows, reflecting an oversupplied market and tepid demand. Additional weight comes from weakening demand signals in China and rising global inventories, reinforcing expectations of a well-supplied market.
On the other hand, U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan crude exports via Chevron and potential additional measures against Russia raise concerns about potential supply disruptions. These geopolitical developments could offer temporary price support, but current fundamentals lean bearish. As a result, any rally towards $62.00 or $62.79 may be short-lived unless substantial supply shocks materialise.
Technical Analysis
XTIUSD | H4
Supply Zone (Sell): 62.79
Demand Zone (Buy): 59.17
WTI remains in consolidation above a key polarity zone, previously a resistance and now acting as support—forming the neckline of a potential head-and-shoulders pattern. The current weekly volume concentration (POC) is developing around 61.10. If the price holds above this level, it could push through 61.64 and 61.80, confirming bullish momentum towards last week’s sell-side POC at 62.79—where bears are likely to return, targeting a drop toward the key 60.00 support.
In a bearish scenario, a breakdown below 61.10 and 60.80 would target a decisive break of 60.00, aiming to retest the three-week demand zone at 59.17. A clean break below that would signal bearish dominance, opening the path towards 57.44, 56.22, and the April support at 54.76 in the coming days.
Technical Summary:
Bullish Scenario:
Price must remain above the POC at 61.10 and break above 61.36. A bullish impulse may follow toward 61.80 and 62.79 (main supply zone). Caution is advised in this area—consider partial profit-taking or securing long positions.
Bearish Scenario:
If price decisively loses the daily open (60.83), it triggers a short-term bearish setup. Targets: 60.00, the uncovered POC at 59.17, followed by 57.44, 56.22, and 54.76. This scenario is invalidated if price reclaims the sell-side POC at 62.79 toward resistance at 64.00.
Exhaustion/Reversal Pattern (ERP):
Before trading any key zone, wait for a confirmed M5 reversal or exhaustion pattern (ERP) as explained here 👉 https://t.me/spanishfbs/2258
Uncovered POC:
The Point of Control (POC) marks the price level with the highest traded volume. If the price drops from this level, it will act as a resistance or sell zone. If the price rallied from it, it serves as a support/buy zone.
